![]() ![]() COVID-19 added yet more unpredictability with championship events, trials and competitions postponed, cancelled, or missing athletes from many countries. It is inherently difficult to accurately forecast how athletes and nations will perform in an event that occurs every four years. The greatest challenge yet to data-driven forecasting of Olympics performance has been the global COVID-19 pandemic. As subsequent Games have taken place, the algorithm has been improved based on lessons learned. Nielsen Gracenote first introduced its Virtual Medal Table (VMT) methodology to forecast the most likely Olympic gold, silver and bronze medal winning countries more than a decade ago. However, Asian participation in World Cup events this season has sharpened the forecasts for these countries. The performances of these countries, particularly China, could be underestimated based on current results data.
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